Things looking up?

http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2007/06/taking_it_slow.html


http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-usa-economy-factories.html?ref=business
At least in the short-term, I suppose. Retail Sales (along with income) actually fell in April, but both may have recovered somewhat in May, suggesting that personal consumption will hold up well enough to ward off recession. Exports and business investment are also contributing to demand growth, meaning we're no longer relying on JUST the consumer to keep the economy moving.
Unemployment rates have remained low as well, though it is possible that most of the effect has been felt on independent contractors and illegal immigrants.

Overall, I'd have to say that recession chances look much lower now.